[CAMWEST-discuss] ABC Cataiyst program on "Oil Depletion" Thursday Nov 24 8:00pm

Danny Hannan danny_hannan at yahoo.com
Fri Nov 25 00:22:23 UTC 2005

If you missed the ABC Catalyst program on Thursday
evening Nov 24 about Oil Depletion, I suggest you get
a copy.

Why oil?
Over 50% of the world's final energy (energy sold to
consumers) comes from oil, if we include natural gas
as a petroleum, 62% of the world's primary energy
(total energy produced) comes from petroleum and 90%
comes from fossil fuels (BP 2005).
Oil is a clean burning fuel and the easiest and
cheapest (in both economic and energy terms) to
produce, refine, and transport and contains more
energy per litre and per kilogram than any comparable

Oil is not replaceable for the modern industries of;
transport, petro-chemicals/plastics, and agriculture.

Many if not most petroleum geologists working in the
petroleum industry are of the opinion that we have
already passed the natural peak of oil production.  It
is only the modern secondary and tertiary extraction
techniques of high-pressure water and gas injection
and horizontal drilling that is maintaining production
levels.  Citigroup (Citibank parent organisation) has
published research that indicates the natural peak was
in 1998.

The modern extraction techniques do not make more oil
available but simply extract what oil is there at a
faster rate.  The North Sea oil deposits are a classic
example.  They peaked (1999) five years earlier than
predicted (2003-4) and oil production is declining at
(8-10%pa) about twice the predicted rate of 3-4%pa,
current production is now half what it was.

We can only extract the oil that is left at an even
faster rate only delaying the inevitable supply crunch
but in so doing, making the crunch the more
precipitous the longer it is delayed.

Many petroleum geologists are convinced that the
crunch is just a few years away.  Best guesses are
saying 2008 but by 2010.

The USA has such high import rates that both it's
budget and trade deficits are growing at alarming
rates and this is on top of very high (record)
personal and corporate debt levels.  A major
correction if not a collapse is almost inevitable and

For energy-economic and engineering reasons alternate
and renewable energy including nuclear and hydro have
a maximum potential of replacing only 20% of the
energy we currently use.  To maintain our current life
style well into the future, that means a maximum of
20% of the current world population with the same
distribution of wealth as now.


--- Robert Moore <fractalbug at yahoo.com.au> wrote:

> Speaking to Vera Zaccari from the Council  just now,
> she needs more people for the Bike Plan Workshop on
> Saturday, so if you were thinking of going but
> havent
> got around to RSVPing to the Council, or if you have
> a
> spare hour or two please come along - it really is
> our
>  chance to get involved in the Bike Strategy. 
> Participants will be asked what kind of bike
> facilities they want, where the problems are, and
> what
> sort of  campaigns and projects Council should be
> running to encourage cycling and improve
> driver/community attitudes.
> So if you want a bike rack outside your favourite
> cafe
> or a bike lane on the way to work, or lower speed
> limits or more traffic calming or whatever, now is
> the
> time.
> Bob
> 98103706
> --- heather halloran <al_paca2003 at yahoo.com> wrote:
> >
> > From: "Zaccari, Vera" <VeraZ at lmc.nsw.gov.au>
> > 
> > 
> > >  <<Workshop Advert_A.pdf>> 
> > > Thank you for showing interet in Council's
> > development of the new
> > > Bicycle Strategy. I write to inform you about
> > another chance to have
> > > input.
> > > 
> > > 26 November 2005
> > From 2pm - 5pm
> > First Floor, Leichhardt Town Hall
> > Corner of Norton & Marion Streets
> > 
> > > RSVP by  email to veraz at lmc.nsw.gov.au or call
> 9367 9223
> > > 
> > > 
> > > Many thanks
> > > 
> > > Vera Zaccari
> > > Project Manager
> >
> ____________________________________________________
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danny_hannan at yahoo.com

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