[CAMWEST-discuss] international debt

Danny Hannan danny_hannan at yahoo.com
Wed Aug 25 22:57:37 UTC 2010


G'day all,
For those that are interested in the progress of the GFC.
US and international banks are losing value because of their exposure to the US 
and European residential mortgage markets where the rate of mortgagee 
reposessions is at record levels and house prices declining with the banks now 
owning large stocks.

Commertial property values are falling as international GDP is waning 
particularly in the US and Europe.  Banks and finace companies are quite exposed 
to the mortgages on these commertial properties.  With the valuations much less 
than the current mortgage many companies are defaulting because they cannot 
afford to refinace.  Commertial property mortgage defaults are at a high level 
and refinancing peaks in 2012.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aBAORMzEmwEg

The above article looks at the bond market that is also looking suspect with a 
peak in maturing bonds in 2012.

Look forward to more Doom and Gloom in my coming article on energy.  Peak oil 
has past, at best peak energy from coal is in 2020 but probably earlier and peak 
energy for natural gas is around 2015 but may also be earlier, with Russia and 
OPEC with some 60% of stated reserves that are unverified; we just don't know.  
After 2020 global energy production will be in steep decline.

Globally and in Australia we need to build low energy transport infrastructure, 
implement high energy efficiency and build 25% of our primary energy from 
renewable sources by 2030.  After 2030 we will not be able to afford the energy 
to do it.

Example:  One large wind turbine requires 22 tonnes of steel and many tonnes of 
concrete, we need 1000 such wind turbines to replace one medium sized coal fired 
power station, and then they only produce when the wind is blowing.  And at the 
moment the grid infrastructure is not in place to service such installations.

We need sizable resources taxes and import duties to fund such infrastructure.

At projected rates of production Australia's black coal will be gone in 50 years 
and our natural gas in less than 40 years, our oil is almost all gone now with 
80% of our liquid fuels imported.  (Australian Energy Resources Assessmant 
2010).

Dan
danny_hannan at yahoo.com 


      
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