[CAMWEST-discuss] Australian and global oil situation

Danny Hannan danny_hannan at yahoo.com
Sun Aug 17 05:16:27 UTC 2014


G'day all,
Some of you may be aware that I have commentated on global energy issues for a while.  I have been asked recently to comment again.  My reply was little has changed since 2010 but there has been much hype about alternative oil production particularly in the USA.  So the attached file is my synopsis and a bit of evidence to support that view.

Also important is the NRMA analysis of Australia's oil security.  In short Australia will be importing 90% of its liquid fuel needs within a year and 100% within a decade or so.  From a global market that will be in tight supply.  And with only about 3 weeks reserves of fuel.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/fuel-security/5278572

http://www.fool.com.au/2014/03/18/nrma-australias-fuel-supply-a-threat-to-our-security/

http://www.mynrma.com.au/media/Fuel_Security_Report.pdf

http://www.mynrma.com.au/images/About-PDF/Fuel-Security-Report-Pt2.pdf

And our fearless (fearless because he is clueless) leader Tony Abbott wants to build the roads of the twenty first century, but we will have to import all the vehicles and all the fuel to run them.  A sure way to send the country broke.

And for those people with investments, I do think there will be a serious correction across the global economies by 2016, but timing is hard to pick, 2008 was much easier to pick which I remind you I accurately did in 2005 and forecast the recession was coming in 2001.  But share, and many other asset prices are approaching bubble levels due to easy money.  A big correction is coming.  I still think oil prices higher than US$120/barrel will do it but the world economy is very unstable and anything can cause the crash.

I don't think Australia will escape this one as well as we have the ones in the past.

Dan
danny_hannan at yahoo.com
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