[CAMWEST-discuss] Oil Supply, Bikes and the future

Mark Robson Mark.Robson at australwright.com.au
Wed May 4 00:10:26 UTC 2011

Hi All,

One 'Gong ride is enough to convince you that cycle paths are not the answer.
The RTA cordon off one lane of the Princes Hwy through Tempe/Arncliffe and this lane 'transports'
about 10,000 cyclists across a 3 hour window, roughly 3,000 per hour. The congestion is horrendous
and serious roadies and teams regularly cross into the adjacent traffic lane. This is why this ride now
has a hard ceiling on numbers  and declines entries from non-fund raisers.

And this is from a 2.5 metres wide piece of road. A 1.2 m wide path (2.5 m  wide two-way ) will max out
at around 1500 cyclists per hour, that's one passing EVERY 2.4 seconds and NO stoppages at lights or road crossings!! Just ask John about the recent Gillett Foundation ride around Greystanes, Wenty and Fairfield, it showed how pathetic the paths are when hit by large numbers of riders.

With the proposed building of the Narremburn to City harbourlink project they are expecting the current 700 cyclists/hour
to quadruple. This will max out the capacity on the harbour bridge pathway even if no oncoming cycle traffic is assumed and the entire width is used for one direction.

The point is that when fuel prices do go through the roof and the million people with bikes in their garages get them out and ride to work
they simply will NEVER fit onto ANY sort of cycle paths; and will simply join the road.

CAMWEST and other bicycle advocacy groups must have a serious programme to maintain cycling road rights at all costs.
It is there that the battle with motorists will be waged, not on cycle paths.

The masses will turn first to trains and buses, which will be so overloaded that travel on them will be problematic; if it isn't already in NSW,
and anyone that wants to arrive at a predictable time ( i.e. on time ) will travel by other means.

First will come the motor scooter revolution, millions on Honda Vespas, followed by the bicycle revolution
when even a small motor scooter is out of the reach of the masses.


From: camwest-discuss-bounces at nicku.org [mailto:camwest-discuss-bounces at nicku.org] On Behalf Of Danny Hannan
Sent: Wednesday, 4 May 2011 9:08 AM
To: John Holstein; camwest-discuss at nicku.org; LBUG at yahoogroups.com.au
Subject: Re: [CAMWEST-discuss] ABC Catalyst Science Show: OIL Crunch

This quote is from a letter I wrote to the then resources minister Nick Minchin, in response to his reply to my earlier letter.  And Martin Ferguson is no better.

"I was thoroughly disappointed with the letter from the Minister for Industry, Science and Resources, Senator Nick Minchin.  His letter is a study in prevarication."

And Martin Ferguson is no better.

"There probably will not be an oil supply crunch this decade but there will be an oil price shock (2008 US$147/barrel).  The oil supply crunch comes early next decade." (Jan 9 2001)

from:  http://camwest.pps.com.au/docs/minchin-lett.doc

And what many are totally unaware of is that global coal production is now at its peak as well, with oil and coal production in decline that is 65% of global energy production and excluding hydro, globally, renewable energy makes up about 0.5% of energy production.  And coal production will be in substantial decline and below demand levels by 2015 plus massive debt levels in almost all western economies, almost all having to import oil and coal at increasing prices.  Looking like a monster economic storm on the horizon.

A side issue:  If you have investments, either direct or via superannuation in tollways or air lines both will be going bankrupt within to early this decade.

And our banks are not all that sound.  Over 60% of the banks loan book is tied to realestate and if the Aussie realestate bubble pops they and we are in trouble.

My prediction is that by 2020 bicycles will be similar numbers to cars on the road due to the high costs of living and motoring.  My projections have been scarily accurate.  Maybe just luck or maybe my analysis is accurate.


danny_hannan at yahoo.com

From: John Holstein <jonhol2 at netscape.net>
To: danny_hannan at yahoo.com; camwest-discuss at nicku.org; LBUG at yahoogroups.com.au
Sent: Wed, 4 May, 2011 8:24:54 AM
Subject: Re: [CAMWEST-discuss] ABC Catalyst Science Show: OIL Crunch
Interesting story, looks like most of the world has their head buried in the (tar) sands. The Peak Oil prediction keeps on creeping back. It used to be around 2030, looks like we have missed the party date already.
Other predictions, more world unrest, higher prices for everything. Try and live for a few hours without using a petroleum based product or eating a food that hasn't been carried hundreds, if not thousands of kilometres to your plate.

John Holstein
Member of CAMWEST (http://camwest.pps.com.au) advocating for better cycling infrastructure for Sydney's West.

"if we don't change direction, we will end up where we are headed" (Professor Irwin Corey
American vaudeville comic and actor (1914 - ) )

-----Original Message-----
From: Danny Hannan <danny_hannan at yahoo.com>
To: camwest-discuss at nicku.org; LBUG at yahoogroups.com.au
Sent: Tue, May 3, 2011 9:40 pm
Subject: [CAMWEST-discuss] ABC Catalyst Science Show: OIL Crunch
G'day all,
For those interested; on April 28 the ABC Catalyst Science Show ran a segment on future oil supply: Oil Crunch

You can view it here if you missed it. http://www.abc.net.au/catalyst/stories/3201781.htm

A good reason to not only keep the bike lanes under threat but to widen them.


danny_hannan at yahoo.com<mailto:danny_hannan at yahoo.com>

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