[CAMWEST-discuss] IPCC statement

Danny Hannan danny_hannan at yahoo.com
Fri Aug 13 21:54:12 UTC 2021

Gday all,
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)statement that global warming will reach 1.50 C within 15 yearswithout dramatic reduction in the use of fossil fuels is no surprise tome.  Many do not understand thesignificance of such a statement.


The IPPC is saying that, with business as usual, a 1.50C warming will take place at a 95% probability within 15 years.  This means that with a much more realistmeasure of 50% probability, a 1.50 C warming will happen within 10years.  Scientists are very conservativein their projections.  Historicallyglobal warming has been advancing ahead of the IPCC projections because bothscientists and the IPCC are very conservative in their projections:  The complete opposite of Scotty frommarketing.


This is no surprise to me. I have been following the stated reserves, production and consumption offossil fuels since 2005.  While thestated reserves of fossil fuels are very suspect, production and consumptionnumbers should be more reliable, but analysis of the data shows multiplediscrepancies; the data is all we have.  Usingthe stated global consumption of fossil fuels it is a simple matter of highschool chemistry to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fueluse.  Those calculated emissions from statedglobal fossil fuel consumption have always been some 50% higher than statedglobal emissions.  In Australia’s case calculated emissions from Australia’sstated fossil fuel consumption is 3 times the stated emissions.  When the calculated emissions from Australia’s stated exports of fossil fuels areadded Australiais contributing over 10% of calculated emissions from stated global fossil fuelconsumption.


The above reasons are why I have been saying for many yearsthat global warming is far worse than stated. In addition global supplies of fossil fuels are challenged as are thesupplies of the metals and other materials that are needed to move away fromfossil fuels.  Global peak oil productionis in the rear view mirror and coal production though a much flatter peak isalso facing major cost challenges. Fossil fuels supply 83-84% of global energy; nuclear, hydro and otherrenewables together supply only 16-17%.  It ishard to see how Scott Morrison’s technological solutions to climate change willhappen.  The technologies are availablebut they do not include fossil fuels; there just has to be the economic casefor implementation, direct taxes on fossil fuels is the most efficient means ofimplementing the change.


While Climate Change is a very complex interaction ofmultiple atmospheric, polar, land and oceanic systems, Global Warming is simplehigh school physics.  Increasingconcentrations of long lived warming gases (carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere increasesthe altitude above the Earth’s surface that Earth’s heat is radiated intospace.  The higher in altitude above theEarth’s surface heat is radiated, the lower the temperature of the gases thatradiate heat, the less heat that is radiated. Determined by Max Planck’s equation for radiating bodies published in1900.
danny_hannan at yahoo.com
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